Crypto in 2026: 5 Predictions That Will Define the Industry’s Next Phase

Crypto isn’t chasing growth the way it used to.

The latest State of the Crypto Industry 2026 report from Sumsub points to a market that’s adjusting to pressure from every side at once—fraud that doesn’t slow down, regulators that now expect execution, and users who won’t tolerate clunky onboarding.

The shift is already visible. Verification is getting faster, pass rates are inching up, and yet most companies say accuracy matters more than speed. That trade-off would have been unthinkable a few years ago.

Growth is starting to be shaped by tougher scrutiny and more sophisticated fraud. What’s emerging is a different kind of competition, which is less about who grows fastest and more about who can operate cleanly at scale.

Here are five predictions from our report that capture where the industry is heading next—and what will separate winners from the rest.

1. Compliance will become infrastructure

The gap between companies won’t be who understands regulation. It will be whoever can run it.

Regulatory frameworks are converging across major markets, but implementation remains uneven. That puts pressure on execution: data accuracy, processing speed, auditability, and how systems behave under load.

There’s already movement in that direction. Verification times dropped globally, even as requirements tightened. At the same time, 74% of companies now prioritize accuracy over speed.

Regulators are also shifting focus. Under frameworks like the EU’s MiCA and FATF Travel Rule guidance, supervision is increasingly tied to how systems perform in practice, not what policies say on paper.

Prediction:
Compliance will become system performance instead of being evaluated by documentation.

2. User experience becomes part of compliance

UX used to sit on the other side of compliance. That separation doesn’t hold anymore.

Poor onboarding flows now create two risks at once: users drop off, or controls fail. The report reflects that tension—58% of companies cite slow or poor UX as a core verification issue, while false positives affect 60%.

At the same time, regulators are paying closer attention to outcomes. Global guidance from regulators such as the FATF increasingly puts emphasis on effective and proportionate controls, not just strict ones.

That’s pushing companies toward risk-based onboarding—adjusting verification depth based on user profile, geography, and behavior, instead of applying the same flow to everyone.

Prediction:
Good UX is no longer a growth lever. It’s going to become a core part of doing compliance properly.

3. Reusable KYC models start to expand in practice

Repeated verification is becoming harder to justify. As users interact with multiple platforms, the cost of re-running full KYC each time is starting to show, because it creates more friction for users and more cost for companies.

Sumsub’s report points to early movement toward reusable identity models such as credential portability, verified identity tokens, and autonomous systems that can work together as a unified entity. Full interoperability isn’t close, but regional and ecosystem-level solutions are starting to take shape.

The broader policy direction also supports this shift. The EU’s digital identity framework (eIDAS 2.0) is built around the idea of reusable, user-controlled identity credentials that can be used for multiple services.

Prediction:
KYC, as is, will not disappear, but it will become less repetitive and more portable, making verification easier.

4. Company-driven transactions will reshape risk

Crypto is no longer dominated by retail behavior.

Individuals still account for most transactions by number, but businesses are taking a much larger share of total value. In 2025, company activity rose sharply as a share of volume, driven by treasury operations, settlements, and cross-border transfers.

That shift changes the risk profile. Larger transactions, more cross-border exposure, and more complex ownership structures.

It also changes what systems need to handle. Retail-focused onboarding isn’t enough when transactions increasingly involve various legal entities. More often than not, they also require beneficial ownership checks and ongoing monitoring.

These are also the current international standards. Beneficial ownership transparency and customer due diligence are central to managing higher-risk flows under the FATF.

Prediction:
Risk will shift away from individuals and toward entities, and systems will have to follow suit.

5. Fraud remains coordinated and continuous

Fraud isn’t spiking. It’s settling into a steady state—and becoming harder to break apart.

Global fraud rates held at 2.2%, but more than half of companies experienced fraud in 2025, and a meaningful share lacked the detection capabilities to identify it with confidence. That uncertainty points to gaps in fraud detection.

The structure of attacks has changed as well. Instead of single-entry points, fraud now runs across the lifecycle—onboarding, account activity, and transactions—using combinations of synthetic identities, social engineering, and mule networks.

This matches broader law enforcement observations. Agencies like Europol have flagged the rise of multi-stage, organized fraud operations that span across multiple platforms and jurisdictions.

Prediction:
Fraud will stop being an incident. It will become an ongoing system-level problem.

Get the full picture

The direction is consistent across all of the crypto industry. Systems are being tested under real conditions, and users expect less friction and not more. Fraud continually adapts. Regulation is increasingly enforced through outcomes as well. The companies that hold up in 2026 will be the ones that treat all of this as one problem, not separate ones.

These are only a few of the shifts outlined in the full report.

Download the State of the Crypto Industry 2026 to explore the full set of predictions, regional trends, and data behind them.