South African Bookmakers Call for Ban on Prediction Markets

The South African Bookmakers’ Association (SABA) has called for unlicensed prediction markets to be banned in the country, arguing that the platforms should be regulated in the same way as betting exchanges.

In a policy position paper published on July 27, SABA said prediction markets should not be allowed to operate until South Africa has a legal framework covering licensing, sports and market integrity, consumer protection, anti-money laundering and taxation.

The association said prediction markets are effectively exchange-style betting products because users can take positions on the outcome of events without the platform taking the other side of the bet. It argued that operators shouldn’t be able to avoid gambling rules by describing their products as forecasting or information markets.

SABA also raised concerns about sports integrity, pointing to the possibility of users profiting from losing outcomes. The association said this could create incentives for match-fixing, spot-fixing, insider manipulation and corruption. It added that similar concerns apply when prediction markets cover political elections, public appointments and other events.

The group also cited anti-money laundering concerns, saying offshore prediction markets can process peer-to-peer transactions across jurisdictions while leaving South African authorities with limited access to transaction data and enforcement options. It said the platforms are also not subject to the same responsible gambling requirements as licensed operators, including self-exclusion measures and advertising restrictions.

SABA pointed to reports that more than R700,000 was wagered on the selection of Johannesburg's next mayor through Polymarket, despite the platform not holding a South African gambling license. The association said activity of this kind shows the need to address prediction markets before they become more established in the country.

SABA has called for a review of gambling, financial market and electoral legislation before prediction markets are considered for authorization. Until then, it wants regulators to treat them as unlicensed exchange-style betting products outside the country's current legal framework.