Singapore Warns of Surge in Illegal Prediction Market Use Despite Ban

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Authorities in Singapore have warned of a rise in wagers being placed on prediction market platforms that have been banned in the country, as prediction markets face continued scrutiny around the world. 

The cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket, for instance, has been categorized as an unregulated gambling site in Singapore since 2024. Users face fines of up to SG10,000 (approx. US$7,800), six months in prison, or both.

Despite this, authorities report that residents are bypassing restrictions to access offshore prediction markets and making trades on everything from sports to the weather. 

iGB reported that nearly SG$158,725 (approx. US$125,000) was wagered on April 17 over whether temperatures in Singapore would hit 33°C.

Prediction markets allow users to trade event contracts tied to the outcome of real-world future events. While they do not operate in the same way as traditional betting operators, in essence, users “bet” on whether a future outcome will happen or not, with most trades relating to sport events. Global trading volume on prediction markets reached around US$51 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow significantly to US$240 billion in 2026.

After the Dutch gambling authority issued a penalty order against Polymarket over similar concerns, Polymarket said:

Pricing and settlement come from market dynamics and protocol contract logic, not from a chance mechanism designed by the operator. The result is not purely chance, but (also) the product of informed decision-making and active trading choices.

Regulators are also concerned about the risks posed by prediction markets for insider trading and market manipulation, with a Buenos Aires court banning Polymarket in Argentina earlier this year following controversy over potential insider trading activity linked to Argentina’s February inflation data. 

Singapore authorities reiterated that individuals attempting to circumvent restrictions to access prediction markets “do so at their own risk.”