Ask Sumsubers: What will be the verification trends of the next 10 years?

Predicting the future of the industry for such a long period of time is difficult. There are just too many variables that we need to consider and that might change the trajectory of the industry. However, we can outline several viable trends that will most likely impact verification in the next decade. They include:

• AI-generated fraud and the utilization of AI to fight it
• A switch eIDs and the disappearance of image-based verification
• Fragmentation of the regulatory landscape

The first trend means that AI-generated fraud, which has already entered the scene, will turn into a huge issue for companies in the upcoming years. This includes deepfakes, which will become more advanced and hard to detect. Vendors will therefore have to rely on multi-layered anti-fraud approaches—and we can already see this happening today.

According to our identity fraud report, AI-powered fraud, which mainly includes deepfakes, is the leading type of fraud in 2023. In the APAC region, deepfakes have increased by 1530%, with Vietnam and Japan leading in the number of attacks and surpassing other countries significantly. Meanwhile, the US has emerged as the absolute leader in deepfake fraud incidents, as advancements in artificial intelligence and digital manipulation technology are leading to a rise in fraud involving fake videos and images. AI technology continues to pose a significant threat in the realm of identity fraud. The widespread accessibility of AI has made it easier and cheaper for criminals to create highly realistic audio, photo, and video manipulations, deceiving individuals and fraud prevention systems. This means that companies should already be taking measures to prevent AI-generated fraud.

Now, let’s talk about the switch to eIDs. Over the next 10 years we can expect a high level of eID integration into our systems. Previously, people in less developed countries or those speaking lesser-known languages were restricted by the low verifiability of their IDs and documentation. This impacted businesses as well, who missed out on new markets since they didn’t have solutions capable of verifying such users. This will change in 2024, as we see non-document verification everywhere alongside new language models, and new means of user trust beyond KYC—namely eIDs, which will help make verification and therefore life easier for customers and end users, especially in emerging markets. Fraud will continue to evolve, and regulators around the world have to adapt to new challenges. However, there still isn’t a single, fully trusted, and globally accepted digital ID. Therefore, service providers will have to be proactive in expanding their own list of acceptable IDs, non-doc verification, and alternative verification methods to hone the accuracy and accessibility of their verification process.

Lastly, I expect more countries to implement region- and industry-specific regulations that are unique for their landscape. To navigate this fragmented landscape, the orchestration of the customer journey is an essential tool, allowing companies to customize verification procedures based on country specifics.

Fragmentation isn’t just occuring country by country; it’s also occurring on a regional level within the same countries. For example, in Canada, Ontario is taking active steps to simplify the gambling registration process, while other regions are taking a more traditional approach. In the upcoming years, we should expect to see more of the same across various jurisdictions.